After losing tropical storm status early in the morning, Tomas has been able to regain it’s structure and reorganized during the day and as of the 5PM advisory from the NHS, Tomas has been upgraded to Tropical Storm status. Now with Tomas reorganizing and with light vertical shear and warm SST’s, intensification is forecast. SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a 50% chance of 30 knot strengthening within the next 24 hours. An argument can be made that with the current organization of Thomas, that is a little too much. The new intensity forecast is a compromise between SHIPS and the LGEM model forecast. Although it is not out of the question but here is the possibility that Tomas may become a hurricane before land interaction stops any further intensification. After passing Hispaniola, southwesterly wind shear will cause Tomas to weaken.
