Invest 99L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Nineteen as of the 11PM advisory last night from the NHC. Strong upper level winds, shear, and dry air were inhibiting development and at times the “center” was reforming in different areas. After most of the day yesterday trying to develop, the system had headed east then southeast. Shear and the upper level winds were decreasing and the Recon plane found a closed circulation with enough winds to be classified as a tropical depression. The D-Max along with shear decrease at this time looks like it is on the edge of becoming Tropical Storm Richard if not already so. The last reconnaissance plane data before writing this blog found an SFMR (Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer – measures wave frequencies from the surface for wind direction/speed of systems) reading of 44kts, uncontaminated. If the data is correct then Tropical Depression Nineteen will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Richard, probably at the 11am advisory from the NHC.
This soon to be designated Tropical Storm now has a better chance of developing into a hurricane and many models are agreeing to that. A few days ago, I didn’t think the storm would possibly affect Florida because of all the different variables, but has been the case with so many storms, Mother Nature has her way and this may affect Florida. The GFDL and HWRF have been forecasting the way this storm has been developing and if this trend continues then everyone in the the Yucatan, Western Cuba and possibly Florida should keep tabs on this storm. Although, at least for the moment, I think the storm intensity might be a little too high as the two models are a little too aggressive so I would tend to dampen it to a more reasonable value. The GFS model wants to have landfall in the Yucatan, then have the system back over warm waters in the Southern GOM and possibly head to Texas or the Gulf States, Florida.
