Hurricane Paula, a very small but category two hurricane is now nearing the Yucatan Channel heading just east of north but Paula is expected to make a turn to the northeast then east. The forecasters at the NHC are very certain that this turn will happen but it is how much of the turn that is still unclear. Paula will become embedded in a westerly to easterly flow that is associated with the base of a deep mid-latitude trough. Some models want to take Paula on a sharp easterly track over Cuba where as other models want to take Paula on a more ENE motion.
Because of the uncertainty on both the track and the intensity, a Tropical Storm WATCH has been issued for a portion of the Florida Keys.
