Author: Admin

Tropical Storm Tomas has ben upgraded to Hurricane Tomas as of the 11am advisory from the NHC. Hurricane Tomas has had a very good presentation all morning. Hurricane Tomas is forecast to continue intensification and most models are forecasting that Tomas will be a major hurricane of at least category three.

The Mid-Layer trough that is taking Hurricane Shary rapidly to the NE is the same trough that is heading NE away from the Caribbean and the mid-level ridging north of Tomas has begun to build. Low to Mid level ridging is forecast by all the global models for at least the next 72-96 hours and building westward across Lesser and Greater Antilles. This will keep Tomas on a westward track for at least the next 2 days. A few days later, a broad mid-tropospheric trough that is currently located along the US west coast is forecast to move eastward into the Central US then it is forecast to dig southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. This will erode the Western portion of the ridge and significantly weaken the steering currents in the western and central Caribbean Sea. This will force Tomas on a northward track. Exactly when the turn will happen is unclear. Some models want to wait then turn Tomas between Eastern Cuba and Haiti where other models want to turn Tomas earlier and have Tomas turn near Hispaniola.

Invest 91L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Tomas as of the 5PM advisory from the NHC. Earlier today, the reconnaissance plane had found that a closed surface circulation was forming and on the way to becoming a tropical storm. TS Tomas is expected to continue slow strengthening and may become a hurricane by Sunday. There is the possibility that TS Tomas may become a major hurricane later in the forecast period.

The models now are forecasting that TS Tomas will continue to head WNW for at least the next 72 hours. The broad trough over the US is now expected to pull out, and this will leave a ridge to build over Tomas and all the way to Florida. Later on, a second and much deeper trough will begin to dig southward into the Southeastern U.S. and this will cause the ridge and all the steering flow to weaken. This will cause Tomas to sharply decrease the forward speed in about 120 hours. It is too early to call whether Tomas will bypass the trough and continue heading WNW or whether the trough will begin to force TS Tomas to head NW then North or not.

NO MATTER where TS Tomas heads, all interests should keep advised of the location that Tomas is heading, especially if he becomes a major hurricane.